Given how this is a lot of HPC usage, you are right that shipped is not the same as revenue recognition. I was looking at how much could ship and what is the revenue on the invoice for that shipment. Things could slip a quarter or two if there are HPC-style acceptances. I think the hyperscaler and cloud builders are probably prepaying for their GPUs, and that should pull some revenue forward in a wash.

I dunno. It’s all conjecture. The point is AMD said $2 billion, raised to $3.5 billion, and many of us think (independently) that it is $5 billion.

You’re welcome.

Think of how many plays in a football game are held up by one ankle grab?

That is a hilarious line. Great start to the morning.

Exactly.

But I wouldn’t count Nvidia out just yet.

We have seen how this pans out in the DC CPU market – Intel has been swamped by rapidly evolving Epyc.

As the adage goes, DC clients buy roadmaps, not chips. They may be meh about MI300, but feel MI500 will far out compete its contemporary from a monolithic constrained Nvidia.

Well, I meant what I said. The CPUs are in recession. So the GPUs are going to fill in the gap and then some going forward, and very likely offer higher profits at some point, too.

Did you mean Datacenter Accelerator(Compute/AI/Whatever) business as Epyc CPUs appear to be not an issue there. And really MI300 comes in the MI300A variant that’s a Data Center APU/Exascale APU(CPU cores and GPU “Cores” on the Module) and the MI300X that’s all GPU instead on the module.

I think the GPU portion was more like $275 million, as I explained in the comment to EC.

That’s just the GPUs–no networking, no servers, no cables, no systems software, no support. Just the GPUs.

And if Nvidia sells even more high end GPUs and generates even more revenues, it only proves my point further. AMD is not going to make a huge dent in Nvidia, but it will build a very nice business for itself. Perhaps faster than anyone expects.

The Q4 2023 number is pretty solid. They guided to $400 million back in October, and they said they beat that, and I think it was due to higher yields being matched to higher interest. Most of that is El Capitan. The machine costs $500 million, with probably $100 million in non-recurring engineering costs. Another $50 million or so for storage. Another $25 million for networking. We’re down to $325 for the compute, most of which (but not all) is GPU. We don’t know how many GPUs El Capitan has. My guess is it will be 2.3 exaflops peak, but my guess back in November was for 23,500 MI300A engines. Call it $276.25 million for the GPUs, at a stunningly small $11,755 per GPU. That leaves $138.8 million in MI300 GPUs to come up with. Oh, that would be only 4,625 GPUs at a cost of $30,000 a pop.